Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Cavs Off-Season

Scotty I sent me an interesting text the other day....

"Cavs interested in Sheed...2yrs 10 mil..."

"Back up plan is either Shaq or Zach Randolph..I WANT THE DIESEL"


On the surface all of these have some merit, but personally I think Shaq and Sheed both have WAY too many miles on them and both would pose a challenge to Lebron's lockroom dominance. Scotty made the point that even at this stage in his career Shaq could guard D-Howard straight up and be the piece to neutralize him for a season or two. While I think that's a solid point, I just see Shaq as such a dominate personality that it just give me the hibie jibies, plus he only really got rejuvinated slightly while playing in Phoenix, where it seems every banged up athlete goes to get healthy (see, Amare and microfracture surgery, Grant Hill and 12 ankle surgeries, and Steve Nash and back problems). Then there's Zach Randolph. Talented as any big man out there, but he is about a stable as plutonium....not a chance I want him anywhere near Lebron or the city of Cleveland for that matter.

This all got me thinking about what moves could the Cavs make this off-season. On top of the age and crazyness issues the three guys above bring, the main thing that bothers me about these as solutions is the lack any sort of imagination, or real scouting. They seem like the choices a couple of guys drinking at the bar would come up with. Not something that an NBA GM studying tape and scouting reports should be able to come up with. They're lazy answers to the Cavs problems.

Lets start by looking at the Cavs free agents and who should and should not be coming back.

All are un-restricted.
  • Big Z (player option) - He can opt out if he wants. Odds are he doesn't have another big contract in him so it would be foolish for him to opt out, so he's coming back. The best Cavs fans could hope for would be Danny Ferry being able to negotiate an extention that lessens his cap hit this off season, but I really don't see that happening.
  • Joe Smith, Wally, and Lorenzen Wright - All are completely off of the Cavs cap and not a one of them has any reason to be brought back. ZERO. Wally and Joe served there purposes the last two years but they played significant roles the last two years and played them mediocre at best. These two roster spots need upgraded in the worst way.
  • Sideshow Bob (player option) - I guess there is a slight difference between his and Z's opt out clauses, but essentially they're the same. I personally would like to see him be dumb enough to opt out, but I doubt it, so I'm going to operate under the assumption that we get him back next season. The bright side, is that if we do enough good things in the off season maybe we can start to use him the way he is supposed to be used. Which is a high energy guy off the bench that gives you a solid 20-25 mins a night with 8-10 boards and points and not someone we try to force into a starting role. The Cavs are paying him way too much for that particular role, but that's his ceiling and it seems everyone but Mike Brown knows it.
Assuming what I have written in the three previous bullets is accurate then the Cavs go into the off-season with the following roster.

Starters
Lebron (G/F)
Z (C)
Delonte (PG)
Mo Williams (SG)
Varejao (PF) - I don't like it but right now that's probably the way it would be.

Key Bench - Would play significant minutes
Boobie Gibson (PG)
JJ Hickson (PF)
Sasha (SG/SF)
Ben Wallace (PF/C) - possibly retiring, but as of now he's still with the team.

That's a 9 man rotation that have obsurdly obvious needs for upgrade. Ben Wallace is on his last leg. He put up a somewhat respectable fight against Howard but ultimately was a shell of his former self. I would love to see JJ Hickson make a leap and compete for starting time but even if he does I really don't envision him as a dominate or even respectable low post force in the league. Sasha has shown to be a streaky scorer at best and honestly if at all possible it may just be best to cut ties with him and upgrade to an actual SG that can provide some consistency. I love me some Boobie, but really we're working with three PG's at this point and someone has to be the odd man out, I think it's Boobie b/c he's young enough and has shown enough promise that I believe he holds some trade bait as well. I would not be opposed to him staying but if him leaving brings back something great in return then I'm all for it (more on this in a minute).

Other Bench - Would play limited minutes at best, all very expendable if needed to find a roster spot.
Darnell Jackson (PF)
Trey Johnson (SG)
Terrance Kinsey (SG)
Jawad Williams (F)

Now you have an idea of where the Cavs currently are, so lets start throwing some possibilities out there.

Option 1 (Trade): The #30 pick in the draft. Boobie Gibson, Varejao and the possibly retiring and therefore expiring contract of Ben Wallace to the incompetent Chris Wallace and the Memphis Grizzlies for the #2 overall pick. The Cavs would have their choice of Hasheem Thabeet or Ricky Rubio. Although the PG position is stacked in Cleveland I would probably take Rubio here because I think Thabeet carries quite a bit of bust potential. But seriously, either of those guys instantly makes Cleveland more talented and staying at the #30 pick is not going to bring back any player that has any promise of helping this team.

Option 2 (FA Signings): This is probably the most likely way for the Cavs to retool for next season. But instead of looking for veterans as quick fix, lazy solutions I believe their philosophy and ultimate goal needs to be finding the "hidden gems" and "up'n comers". Mainly because they have too much money tied into Z, Andy and potentially Big Ben. But they're getting some relief with the expiring contract of Wally. So use this money to pick up solid role players that won't cost you an arm and a leg. Players like Pietrus (amazing bargin last season), Ariza (a guy that is multi talented, young and while he will get paid, won't break the bank), Monta Ellis (G-State locked him up early for good reason). Now I don't necessarily believe we need to pick up all guards. In fact I think it would be best to probably retool the low post. I simply use these three players as examples of those second/third tier kind of players in the league. Guys that can be good players or stars, but not SuperDuperStars. Players that increase the overall talent of your team by simply not taking anything away from your team. Who do I think some possibilies are for the Cavs? Let's see....

Restricted Free Agents:
Sean May - Solid rookie campaign, fell off in the second year due to injuries. Even though he is restricted could probably get him for a reasonable price. He brings the hustle of Andy but also brings some actual offensive talent as well. If he doesn't start at the beginning of the season he does before the All-Star break.

Leon Powe - Has had better seasons the last few years so he will probably cost more than May and the Celtics are likely to match the offer, but if you can find a way to bring him in, he's young and has title experience. You pull that trigger.

Hakim Warrick - More offense than defense here but very talented and the Grizz are kind of loaded at that position. Very likely would not match an offer.

Jamario Moon - Shawn Marion Lite, still very young. Could be a defensive stopper and if he continues to develop will provide a good slasher and a solid outside shot. Again, you wouldn't be breaking the bank here either.

David Lee, Paul Milsap or Charlie Villenueva - I'm putting them in the same category because they are all obvoius "wants" however their existing teams would probably match any offer. Milsap may be the only exception, and if you can get him you then you do it.

Pops Mensah-Bonsu - Seriously, you have to want a guy with this name. But from a basketball standpoint. He started to get some playing time at the end of last season, showed he could be a solid rebounder in this league and showed some scoring flashes. He would be dirt cheap and worth the look.


Unrestricted Free Agents:

Brandon Bass - Similar to Powe and May but with the added bonus that he is unrestricted. If we don't feel one of the other PF's are getable, this is a solid option.

Ben Gordon - I LOVE the fact that he is available and think he would fit very well with Cleveland. I'm just not sure who to get rid of to make room at the PG/SG position. He's like Mo Williams in that he's PG size but SG skills. I don't think there's room for two of those guys on a roster.

Von Wafer - Legit SG that played some clutch games in the playoffs this year. Could be a good swing man addition.

Trevor Ariza - If you can then you need to get this guy. Will bring athleticism, defense, and 3 point shoting. Plus he spent the last two seasons playing with Kobe, so he knows his role behind an alpha dog.

Chris Wilcox - I know he hasn't done it yet, but something about this cat makes me think he can be a very good and serviceable PF in this league. He would be dirt cheap and worth a shot if we need to fill a roster spot.

Matt Barnes - I think this is the next Trevor Ariza. A little smaller but brings all of the same things to table and hasn't really hit the spot light yet so you can probably get him for a lot less. Would be a really intriguing pick up.

Ime Udoka - Tim Duncan's back up the last few seasons. Nothing stellar numbers wise but the kind of guy that doesn't take anything off the table. Defends bigs well, has some solid athleticisim and isn't going to be a liability on the offensive end.

If the Cavs take a shot at retooling by taking both options, the draft day trade and picking up a few of these FA's I would pee myself in excitement for next season. The core they have now has proven to fall short the last three years. Don't get me wrong. It's a "good" core, but it's just not a championship one. Ideally I would like to see the trade happen and 2-3 of these signings. Here is my wet realistic dream.

Starters:
Lebron (SF)
Z (C)
Rubio (PG)
Mo (SG)
Leon Powe (PF)

Bench:
JJ Hickson (PF)
Udoka (PF/C)
Matt Barnes (SF/SG)
Delonte (PG)



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